The current economic environment both in the world and Bulgaria is uncertain and unstable. Business executives and consumers are carefully assessing the potential impact on their plans. We are facing one of the most volatile and uncertain periods that most people can remember with the continued geopolitical uncertainties. In addition, in Bulgaria we have the steadily increasing price of oil and gas, EU cohesion funds mismanagement, the upcoming general elections in 2009, and the slack government financial policy.

Even though all empirical evidence and past history shows that ICT investments contribute to productivity, growth, and profitability, the safer route may be seen as making no decisions, and that is the greatest risk of all the regional ICT industry and to the local economies as a whole. In this scenario the no-decision option could also become pervasive in the consumer segment, and that would have an even bigger impact on ICT spending. We will show you how you can take advantage of this wave of uncertainty without too much turmoil.

Findings include:

• While the times are uncertain, and while the world financial markets are collapsing, the sense that there will be a global meltdown is perhaps more scare tactics than reality. Nevertheless, the thought alone that there could be a global economic crisis is driving overall spending cuts that will likely slow down the growth of the IT market in Bulgaria.
• The ICT industry in Bulgaria will not escape the impact of a U.S. recession. While the underlying strength of the ICT industry will be supported by the continuation of major ICT projects, the greater risk is the likelihood of delayed decisions for new major projects, and that will be an impact that we will see in 2009 and 2010. So in the short term – less than one year – some discretionary investments and spending will be curtailed, the ongoing projects and plans will likely be carried out. If the recession does hit hard in the United States and Western Europe, then we should expect to see serious impacts on ICT spending in Bulgaria in mid- to late-2009.

Why Attend?

The IDC Briefing is directed to all IT vendors that want to expand their market opportunities and adapt their strategies to the dynamics of the vertical markets. It would provide an overview of IT spending trends and forecasts in the main vertical markets and technology categories. Key industry developments, industry challenges, vertical-specific IT drivers and trends will be presented based on continuous research and monitoring of user IT spending, emerging purchasing patterns, and supply and demand-side research.

Within this event, IDC analysts will provide you with essential guidance and insight regarding the evolution of the IT sector, in each of the vertical market that the company follows and reports on.

Key Topics to be addressed at the Executive Briefing:

• CEE Trends in the IT Spending by Vertical Markets
  Arun Chandramohan, Senior Analyst, IDC CEMA
• IT Spending in Key Verticals in Bulgaria, Trends 2007-2008 and Forecast
  Neli Vacheva, Country Manager, IDC Bulgaria
  Evelin Stoev, Analyst, IDC Bulgaria

Detailed analyses of the impact of the current market situation to the IT spending in the following verticals:

• The Bulgarian Financial Services Sector
  - The short- and midterm, direct impacts on the financial services market as a result of the current financial services industry crisis;
  - Manufacturing slowdown could hurt financial services sector;
  - Business projects, financed in part by borrowing, will likely be affected if liquidity dries up
• The Bulgarian Telecommunications Services Market:
  - The impact on telecom service revenue and end-user spending. The crisis and perceived uncertainty may act as a brake on capital spending projects, with a trickle-down impact on associated IT network equipment vendors;
  - Slower revenue growth for large enterprise customers;
  - Planned MPLS and 3G network migration at risk of slowing down
• The Bulgarian Government Spending on ICT
  - Will local governments risk EU sanctions with delaying important ICT projects?
• The Bulgarian Retail/Wholesale Spending on ICT
  - Retailers are already affected by tightening credits and falling demand from home users. Why cutting spending on IT might be the last resort for them
  - Not all retailers will be affected the same way
• The Bulgarian Manufacturing Sector
  - First lay offs have already been announced and if the financial crisis worsens, manufacturing will slow down in Bulgaria, troubled additionally by the high energy prices. This will backfire in the financial sector in the country. Reduced exports will additionally hit local manufacturers
  - However most manufacturers acknowledge ICT spending is crucial for them. To what extent this is true – we found out
• The Bulgarian Utilities Sector
  - ICT projects are the key for success in most companies in this vertical but possible delays may slow down spending
• The Bulgarian Construction and Real Estate
  - These will be among the hardest hit from the financial crisis and major cuts in IT spending accompanied by general withdrawal of FDI are unavoidable